Simon Hunt Strategic Services for Global Economies & Commodities
Newsletter No. 60 - Global Economy: Where the Rubber Meets the Road
“No Congress of the United States ever assembled on surveying the State of the Union has met with a more pleasing prospects than that which appears at the present time. In the domestic field there is tranquility and contentment and the highest record of years of prosperity.” President Coolidge, 4th December 1928
“Any way you look at it, the stock market in dangerously overvalued now: the S&P is almost as pricey as it was at the January 2022 bull market top.” Mark Hulbert, Market Watch, 30th August 2024
“The unemployment rate has risen by nearly a full percentage point to 4.3%. Pandemic era excess savings are now all gone, and the US consumer savings rate has fallen to the lowest in 17 years. Credit card delinquencies are sharply higher, and first half corporate bankruptcies soared nearly 40% year-over-year to a 12-year high.” Fred Hickey, The High-Tech Strategist, 1st September 2024
“Judging from our now-casts heading into September, we are observing a very low risk of rising inflation, a very low risk of rising growth and a very low probability of rising liquidity. This ‘down, down, down’ scenario is bad news for concentrated equity bets in Nasdaq and cyclically sensitive assets such as commodities and cyclical industries.” Andreas Steno, Steno Research, 1st September 2024